How the Documents Indictment Will Bolster Trump's Campaign:

Background:

Former president Donald Trump’s latest indictment marks the first time in our nation’s history that a former president will face federal charges and has been accused in a legal document of knowingly endangering national security. Trump faces a total of 37 charges, 31 of which concern his handling and the security of national defense documents, while the six others pertain to obstruction of justice during the original FBI investigation. These documents contain a range of highly-classified information, including details about foreign nations’ nuclear capacities, militaries, and U.S. military weaknesses. The DOJ seeks to convict Trump in violation of the Espionage Act for “willful retention of national defense information,” for withholding/concealing documents, obstruction of justice, and making false statements. Many of his alleged crimes were committed in partnership with Walt Nauta, Trump’s co-conspirator, who faces six charges of his own after lying to the FBI on Trump’s behalf in an interview from May of 2022.

The political undertones of the indictment have been further brought to light by national surveying of public opinion conducted collaboratively by various media outlets concerning its validity. Support versus condemnation falls directly along party lines, with 86% of Democrats and 45% of independents in favor of the indictment, while 67% of Republicans feel the charges have no merit. Moreover, 47% of all citizens speculate that the accusations are politically motivated to some degree, regardless of their position on their legitimacy.

Trump’s principal defense falls in correspondence with his prevailing strategy of warding off persecution; He’s trying to discredit the charges by accusing the Department of Justice of corruption and proclaiming himself a victim of a “political witchhunt.” Furthermore, the previous survey shows no signs of Trump’s polling performances declining. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, however, as any current Trump supporter would have already endured two impeachments and another indictment by his side, indicating that they’ve surely bought into his narrative of the DOJ’s corruption by now. It’s clear yet another indictment won’t cause the former president to lose any supporters he hasn’t lost already, but more surprisingly, it could inadvertently bolster his campaign. There are two battlegrounds for this second indictment: The courts and the political arena. The charges against Trump are serious and could result in a lengthy jail sentence should he be convicted, yet the outcomes of the legal battle are anything but indicative of the political effects. The question then remains: How can Trump manipulate this seemingly detrimental campaign (and reputation) blow into an event that will instead elevate his polling performances and general support?

Opinion:

A key issue with the second indictment is that criminal charges are being pressed at all because regardless of the outcome, these accusations further aid Trump’s narrative that he's a “victim of a “political witchhunt.” Trump has been meticulously crafting a court case against the sitting governmental system since the moment he was "robbed" of the 2020 election and the documents charges he faces now will merely serve as additional evidence supporting his cause. If his loyal supporters were to jump ship on him due to misconduct or criminal activity now would not be that time; They would’ve done it during either of his two previous impeachments or during his Stormy Daniels-related indictment. The troubling reality is that Trump has successfully convinced nearly half of the country that the justice system is two-faced, that it rather than he is corrupt, and therefore any further claims against him from the current political establishment are automatically discredited. In defending his image Trump is simultaneously tearing down citizens' confidence in our nation’s justice system, exploiting any sense of skepticism by pointing to “attacks” such as this indictment to validate his narrative. If Trump can successfully defame the system, all claims and charges against him immediately lose their value too, as is the same for the Biden administration and DOJ generally. I hope that the gravity of this issue is painfully obvious. If most of our nation trusts a deeply corrupt ex-president over the existing administration, a nasty Pandora’s Box of anarchic possibilities will be opened.

Trump also has a plan for manipulating his “court case” to not only protect himself but to also garner additional heaps of political support, regardless of how the legal battle plays out. Many GOP members are accusing the DOJ of uneven application of the law based on political affiliation due to their failure to serve Hunter Biden justice over the laptop scandal, as well as President Biden himself over similar document accusations (even though Biden cooperated and returned the documents upon the initial request, rendering his actions legal). The contrast between the Biden family’s scandals and lack of accountability for them against Trump’s polar opposite experience with the DOJ has also provided legitimacy to his claims of a corrupt system. He’s then used these claims to create an additional political platform to gain electoral support given the Republican Party’s self-proclaimed reputation as the party of law and order. Positioning himself as the lawful candidate who seeks to reform a corrupt justice system allows Trump to boost his electoral popularity while concurrently diminishing Biden’s, all because the context of the documents indictment regarding a “double standard” allows him to validate his claims of a two-faced justice system.

We will dive deeper into the “party of law and order” point later when discussing Trump’s GOP rivals' positions on the indictment, but that is far from the only way the charges are bolstering his political popularity. As proclaimed by Trump’s personal attorney, Alina Habba, due to the indictment's convenient timeliness, many of his supporters believe that the Biden administration is “taking away your right to vote, and it is a very scary time for our country.” The indictment is yet another example of "election fraud" against poor ex-president Trump and will act as gasoline to fan his fiery misguiding rhetoric across the nation. These claims that the charges aim to squander Trump’s presidential aspirations before the election begins have been circulating in right-wing media since the indictment's publicization, and have created a potent “rally around the flag” effect. Trump wants his supporters to rally around the flag in fighting both the charges and to preserve democracy in the face of a corrupt act of "election interference." The indictment also comes at a suspiciously convenient time when Trump is surpassing Biden in general election polling, further reinforcing his claims that Biden is weaponizing the justice system to preserve his own power. This has allowed Trump and his supporters to portray removing Trump from the race as equivalent to removing the right to vote from the citizens themselves. One can’t just break their opponent's leg before a footrace if one knows the opponent is faster, just as Biden can’t prevent his greatest political threat from running in an election by putting him in jail. Let me reiterate: This is not my point of view, but the argument from the conservative camp. Although I believe the validity of the indictment is unquestionable, its timing and circumstances paint a really ugly picture for the Biden administration and its DOJ.

The conservative argument is powerful. Although Trump’s mishandling of military secrets posed a gut-wrenching threat to our national security and needs to be held accountable for the grave abuse of power, the timing and context of the indictment are unsettling, to say the least. Dissecting and disproving an argument rooted in the founding bipartisan principle of our nation is a monumental task, even if the claim is way out of context. We've engaged in two world wars over protecting democracy; There is no rhetoric more compelling. Last year Trump himself called for the termination of the constitution and has overstepped his presidential powers time and time again, but the dear word “democracy” acts as a hot trigger when inciting public reaction, and citizens will often become blinded to external context and incapable of logical reasoning as a consequence of their affinity towards it. This is how Trump’s depiction of his charges as an anti-democratic election heist will boost his electoral support. As is the case with the “restoring law and order” platform, protecting democracy is an ideal that the overwhelming majority of American citizens champion, and by successfully portraying the indictment in contradiction to both of these foundational values it becomes clear why the accusations are not something Democrats should be celebrating. Invoking emotion through a foundational American principle is a lethal strategy that will ensure his successful manipulation of public opinion, and concerning those blinded to his objective wrongdoings, Trump will undoubtedly secure their votes.

In addition to the compelling case featuring the indictment as cornerstone evidence Trump and his advocates have mounted to boost his campaign, this perceived injustice has also become a rallying point for many of Trump’s GOP primary rivals in support of his cause. The indictment has stifled the GOP primary electoral race as most candidates feel compelled to weigh into backing their party’s golden boy against a “corrupt” democratic establishment. Florida Governor and Trump’s greatest threat in the GOP primary, Ron DeSantis, accused the Biden DOJ of “weaponization of federal law enforcement,” and vowed to “bring accountability to the DOJ, excise political bias and end weaponization,” in a Twitter statement following the indictment’s announcement. Former Vice President and partial Trump critic Mike Pence went after Attorney General Merrick Garland, challenging him to “stop hiding behind the special counsel and stand before the American people” to explain what he considers an “unprecedented action,” expressing obvious disdain for the DOJ’s actions. Even dark horse candidate Vivek Ramaswamy expressed support for the former president in a press release by stating that “the use of police force by a sitting U.S. President against his chief political rival amid a presidential election sets a dangerous precedent in our country.” He also echoed many of Trump’s claims about the two standards of justice based on political viewpoints and pledged to pardon Trump should he capture the presidency in 2024. Not all, but many of the candidates who should be seeking to take down Trump in the GOP primary have instead rushed to his defense… Why?

This is where the electoral strategy becomes deeply political, beyond the surface-level Trump vs Biden administration scuffles we’ve watched play out over the past few years. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are not Trump supporters, but they are Republicans. They are trying to win the votes of a party that’s generally supportive of ex-president Trump, but more importantly, is the party of law and order. This platform of reforming the justice system that Trump has built over the past few years by citing political hit jobs against himself has been adopted by the Republican party as a whole and thus to be popular within the party, all candidates need to adopt it too. This indictment is a perfect opportunity for the other GOP candidates to prove their dedication to party missions and theoretically garner individual popularity in return. Except there’s a problem: This seemingly party-wide platform really still belongs to Donald Trump, so by supporting the reformation of the justice system, Trump’s rival candidates are directly benefitting Trump himself. This ties back to the serpentine-like chokehold Trump holds over the modern Republican party. So many of the party’s current goals are rooted in Trump’s ideas that it's nearly impossible for other candidates to become popular without also buying into a large portion of Trump’s agenda. The situation has also halted all personal campaign efforts by GOP contenders and is forcing them to divert their focus toward aiding Trump given the significance of this issue to the GOP. The challengers are put on hold and Trump regains the spotlight; It’s all a big distraction. These charges are effectively unifying the party around Trump and his calls for law and order, which is to the utmost detriment of all other Republican nominee hopefuls.

Now, I’ve exhausted all the reasons why Trump and his supporters should be celebrating the indictment, but have maintained my position that accountability is a non-negotiable without proposing an alternative solution. Many legal scholars are skeptical of the DOJ's ability to prove the criminality of Trump’s actions regarding the classified documents. His actions were blatantly irresponsible, dangerous, and an abuse of power, but whether or not they were criminal lies in the fine print of his motivations, intentions, and personal knowledge, all of which are intricacies that could be nearly impossible to prove in the courts. However, as a person of power in our country, one doesn’t necessarily need to commit a crime to be punished for unprecedented actions.

An impeachment would make reaching a conviction far easier, in addition to painting the Biden administration in a better light. It’s one thing to put a former president behind bars, but it’s far more justifiable to prevent him from holding office in the future due to numerous accounts of grave misconduct. Sure, Trump’s been impeached twice and acquitted both times, but legal scholars, prominent Democrats, and Republicans all agree that Trump acted in an impeachable manner by threatening national security and obstructing justice. The criminality of the charges will be hard to prove and as stated by Vivek Ramaswamy, imprisoning the former president of our nation sets an unfathomable precedent moving forward that would send the founding fathers into a panic attack. For these reasons, impeachment would be a far more suitable course of action and would have a substantially greater chance of garnering a conviction than either of the previous two impeachments or the current indictment, and avert the claims of corruption against the Biden administration.

Overall, the indictment is a bad look for democracy, allows for the Republican party to rally behind Trump in the name of law and order, and stifles the campaigns of Trump's GOP primary contenders. Justice needs to be served, but at this time and in this manner is the wrong way to go about it. Trump, the master manipulator of public opinion, knows this. He is ready to flip the script on the Biden administration and weaponize the charges to eradicate the public's faith in it, all while skyrocketing his own chances at re-election in 2024.